After being the slowest growing region in 2021, Africa will register mild growth in 2022 (+3.5%) as vaccination rates will remain very low (32% in the overall continent but only 4% in Sub-Saharan Africa) according to the Allianz Economic Outlook report Don’t Look Up. GDP growth expectations in countries are as follows: Senegal (6,1%), Kenya (5,6%), Ivory Coast (5,5%), Ghana (5,4%), Egypt (4,6%), Mozambique (4,6%), Namibia (3,7%), Morocco (3,3%), Tunisia (3,2%), Gabon (3,2%), Algeria (2,4%), Nigeria (2,3%), Angola (2,2%) and South Africa (2,0%).
In an environment of continued sanitary uncertainty, this monetary tightening is expected to put a brake on growth.
In addition to rising energy prices, food inflation has soared to hardly bearable levels in Angola, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Ghana.
The food security situation is likely to deteriorate in 2022 in southern and eastern Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia because of adverse climate events. The deteriorating security situation in Ethiopia entails significant risk of spillovers to the region, including migration flows to the Kenyan border. Tunisia, Ghana, Mozambique, Kenya, and South Africa are hot spots regarding debt sustainability. Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and Burkina Faso will see current account deficits only improve slightly in 2022 after deteriorating in 2021.
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